Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace Cost
Compare heat pump and gas furnace running costs for your home size and climate. See which wins in your state.
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Comparing the same delivered heat: a heat pump at a seasonal COP of 2.8 costs about $19.30 per million BTU, a 92% AFUE gas furnace about $15.65 — gas is roughly 19% cheaper at US average prices. It is the ratio of your electricity rate to your gas rate that decides this, not the technology: applying each state's own rates and winter climate, the heat pump delivers heat more cheaply in 11 of 51 jurisdictions, mostly the mild-winter South plus Texas and Hawaii. The heat pump also replaces your air conditioner, which the furnace does not.
Electricity 18.44¢/kWh (EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A, May 2026); natural gas $1.44/therm (EIA, winter average, November 2025 - March 2026 (US); December 2025 - February 2026 (by state)). Seasonal COP 2.8 is our modelling assumption for a moderate US winter and falls in colder climates. Use the calculator below for your own rates.
A heat pump at a seasonal COP of 2.8 delivers heat for about $0.019 per 1,000 BTU at the US average electricity rate of 18.44¢/kWh. A 92% AFUE gas furnace delivers the same 1,000 BTU for about $0.016 at $1.44/therm. On running cost alone gas is cheaper at national average rates — but the result flips in states where electricity is cheap relative to gas.
Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace Cost Calculator
Heat Pump vs Gas Furnace — Monthly Cost by Home Size
| Home Size | Heat Delivered | Heat Pump (COP 2.8) | Gas Furnace (92% AFUE) | Lower Running Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small (~1,000 sq ft) | 6.5 MMBtu | ~$125/mo | ~$101/mo | Gas Furnace |
| Medium (~2,000 sq ft) | 10.8 MMBtu | ~$208/mo | ~$169/mo | Gas Furnace |
| Large (~3,000 sq ft) | 16.2 MMBtu | ~$313/mo | ~$254/mo | Gas Furnace |
Both columns deliver the identical heat shown in the second column — the whole-home load of an average-insulated house over a month averaging 35°F outdoors (900 heating degree days). Heat pump at seasonal COP 2.8, gas furnace at 92% AFUE. Electricity 18.44¢/kWh (EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A, May 2026); natural gas $1.44/therm (EIA, winter average, November 2025 - March 2026 (US); December 2025 - February 2026 (by state)). The winner flips to the heat pump where electricity is cheap relative to gas — see the state pages for your own rates.
When Does a Heat Pump Beat a Gas Furnace?
At a seasonal COP of 2.8 and 18.44¢/kWh, a heat pump delivers heat at roughly $0.019 per 1,000 BTU. A 92% AFUE gas furnace at $1.44/therm delivers the same 1,000 BTU for about $0.016. At national average prices the furnace is the cheaper machine to run. What decides the answer for your house is the ratio between your electricity rate and your gas rate — not which technology is newer.
Applying each state's own rates and winter climate, the heat pump delivers heat more cheaply in 11 of the 51 US jurisdictions — mild-winter states where a heat pump holds a high seasonal COP and gas is relatively expensive. Arkansas is the widest margin at about 27% below a 92% AFUE furnace, with Texas around 21%.
High-electricity states run the other way. California (33.25¢/kWh) and Massachusetts (28.82¢/kWh) have some of the most expensive residential electricity in the country, and expensive electricity is exactly what a heat pump spends. Their gas is dear too, but not dear enough to close the gap: in both states a 92% AFUE furnace still delivers heat for less. These are the states where the heat pump's running-cost case is weakest, not strongest — the case there rests on the cooling it also provides and on emissions, not on the monthly bill.
One number worth stating plainly: the federal §25C energy efficient home improvement credit that used to cover 30% of a heat pump install up to $2,000 ended for property placed in service after 31 December 2025. Do not build a payback estimate on it. For a full breakdown by fuel type, see our gas vs electric heating comparison or try the heat pump cost calculator with your own rates.
Heat Pumps & Smart Controls
Pre-charged line set and a DIY installation system. MRCOOL rates the 18,000 BTU unit for around 750 sq ft — treat that as the manufacturer's figure and confirm it against a Manual J load calculation for your room.
View on Amazon →Auto-schedules based on your habits. Compatible with gas furnaces, heat pumps, and dual-fuel systems. Works with Google Home & Alexa. The savings figure is Google's own, from its 2015 study — your result depends on how far your old schedule was from optimal.
View on Amazon →AURA is Senville's cold-climate line and the one that carries the -22°F heating rating and ENERGY STAR listing — the cheaper LETO series heats to about 4°F. Capacity still falls as it gets colder, so size for your design temperature, not the headline number.
View on Amazon →Designed specifically for dual-fuel systems. Automatically switches between heat pump and gas backup based on outdoor temperature for maximum savings.
View on Amazon →Portable heat-pump unit — no permanent installation. A room-level alternative to forced-air heating; check the model's rated capacity against your room before buying, as portable units vent through a window and lose some of their output to that duct.